Ian Woodward's Investing BlogA Perspective of the S&P 500 History
Next week will be interesting. Just a few statistics on the S&P 500 to give a balanced view of where we stand:
- The least % down for the 13 previous longest moves on the S&P 500 is -9.73%. That was in 1990.
- The next lowest was back in 1953…who cares, but it was -14.82%
- The Average of the past 13 such long rallies is -28.05%. Let us pray we don’t suffer that big a drop.
- We are currently down -7.91%, so we hope it holds at 8% or a bit more.
- We badly need a bounce play at least. Call it a snap back this week.
- That doesn’t mean we will be out of the woods…no pun intended while enjoying the golf with Tiger leading.
- If the downdraft sets in, understand that the least number of Trading days to the low was in 1987 with 39
- If we liken this to 1990 for a drop of around 10%, that took 43 Trading Days.
- The ONLY saving grace is that the P-E of the S&P 500 is 15.20 which is the lowest since 1990
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If Corporate Earnings continue at this clip, we can hit 100 for the S&P 500 and that will give us plenty of Gas in the Tank. The tug of war I described earlier between EPS reports and Sub-prime spill over has been won by the latter for now. So, the bad news is that Technicals trump Fundamentals right now.
Best Regards, Ian.
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