Ian Woodward's Investing Blog

1. Who’s He?  He’s the CNBC commentator that specializes in the brokers, banks, and financial industry.  He’s the one that announced ABK “might” get a capital infusion to save their AAA last Friday 30 minutes before the bell which caused the big 10 minute complete reversal that gave everyone a sigh of relief.  He also went on this morning to announce the deal has hit a snag.  What lets him and CNBC off the hook is the words “might” and “snag”.   So much for gurus and it again goes to show that this market is so jittery that it has now become a “Catching a Pop or Short on a positive or negative news story” type of Market.  The constant reporting of rumors that subsequently prove to be incorrect by CNBC requires indignation and scorn for that kind of sensational journalism, yet they are the only game in town. 
2. Unfortunately, it also causes havoc with the Technical Analysis to say nothing of your pocketbook, as certain targets are made or broken based not on solid Market Data; but micro-managing price and volume and time periods made by the herd based on phony news is what it has come down to.   
3. In my blog of a week ago, I said “The good stuff on Symmetrical Triangles is still intact for yet another T/A element to watch for next week.  Unless there is again some follow through tangible information that breaks early next week on this subject to continue to drive the Bears to cover their shorts and possibly force the pattern to the upside, the odds still favor a move to the downside with Lower Highs and Lower Lows.”  Just as well I gave you the reasons to be cautious and also the Late Breaking News viewpoint that my good friend Mike Scott cautioned me on the whims and fancies of symmetrical triangles.  At the expense of being repetitive, Types 1 & 2 Traders can enjoy the Volatility to their hearts content; Types 3 & 4 should be patient, prudent and pounce when things look better.  If you haven’t read the blog on Tea Leaf Reading, that’s where you will find all the good words of wisdom which hopefully will save you money. 
4. Here’s a repeat of the symmetrical triangle picture, and it still says my bias is to the downside.  We are currently at 2271. I have updated it to show that the challenge to retest the Base Low of 2203 is a lot easier than to head back up to 2435 and then 2540 by comparing the green and thin pink arrows.  Please also note that once at -23% at the Base Low, the odds are equal going to 2010 as it is to 2435, the 50-yard line of where I suggest the ball-game is being played, until I see a positive turn around from the current fight at the OK Corral, round #3.

Best regards, Ian.

This entry was posted on Friday, February 29th, 2008 at 4:35 pm and is filed under HGS Principles, Market Analysis. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.