Ian Woodward's Investing Blog

The HGS Investor May Newsletter Overview

Market Winds – In Yorkshire, England, there is a favorite saying regarding the weather which goes “Ne’er cast a clout till May be out”, which translated means don’t get rid of your winter woolies until then.  I was a Londoner before becoming a Philadelphian, New Yorker, Texan and Californian, so maybe we can stretch this rally to June!  My saying is “When the wind is at your back, Attack; when it’s in your face…Disgrace”.  Let the market tell you which way the wind is blowing. 


  • Overview:  Since the Ides of March when we found a bottom on March 17, we have now bounced on a decent Bear Market Rally to the tune of 11% to 15% depending on the Market Index.  We have weathered the storm for now from back then and are at a critical juncture yet again:
    1. The glass ceiling of getting past the 200-dma is uppermost on our minds.

    2. The 40-period Bollinger Band Chart must see the Indexes above the orange line of the middle BB.  That is the true test of whether all Indexes are fully on the mend.   
    • Sometimes opportunities present themselves which enable me to revisit what I have covered from time to time, but drive points home forever, and this past month was such an occasion.  This time last month we were breathing a sigh of relief that the Bear Market Rally was a month old but were concerned that the Volatility Index (VIX) which had just barely broken down through the 200-dma might give the Bears courage to mount the fourth assault from that point and kill the rally.  I warned at the time that this time may be different and there was the possibility that the rally could continue to at least achieve a 15% up leg.  I have spent the entire Case Study discussing what to look for and two scenarios that describe the current possibilities for the immediate future, coupled with a perspective of past history on the VIX. 
    • Ron’s movie and focus this month is on Wolf Packs with Price momentum over the past month, i.e., Group Speed as well as High Yield Stocks of 5% or higher.  In addition, Ron shows how to find when Earnings Reports are due by using an excellent free website on the Internet called finviz.com.  Thanks to Dave Steckler and John Goble for mentioning this site to us. 
    • The next Seminar will be from October 25 to 27, 2008, and it is time to get cracking and sign up.  We already have 33 paid five months in advance of the seminar, so if you intend on coming hurry as the interest is already very high.  Sign up on the website or send me a check for $1200.  First-come-first-served is the order of the day…there will not be any reserved seating.  A full house is 60 people and we are already 55% full.


    Best Regards, Ian.

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Disclaimer: Commentaries on this Blog are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell the market and/or specific securites. The consumer of the information is responsible for their own investment decisions.