Ian Woodward's Investing Blog

A Six-pack of Hindenburg Omen’s since Oct. 15

six pack

The Hindenburg Omen chalked up the Sixth Signal last night. 

  1. The probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen within the next 41 days after its occurrence is 77%, the probability of a panic sellout is 41% and the probability of a real big stock market crash is 25%.
  2. The occurrence of a confirmed Hindenburg Omen does not necessarily mean that the stock market will go down.
  3. On the other hand there has never been a significant stock market decline in history that was not preceded by a confirmed Hindenburg Omen.

The confirmed Hindenburg occurred on October 17th, so we should expect at least a 5% correction in the S&P 500 by November 27th…in time for Thanksgiving.  I wish this would get it over and done with before then so that we can enjoy our turkey with family and friends.  Let’s hope that rule #2 applies this time and that all of this was just a shot across the bow for now.

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Best regards, Ian.

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