Ian Woodward's Investing Blog

I don’t have to rub it in as to what the Stock Market has done to the 401-K’s turning to 401-Kegs, but it seems only Yo-Yo Players who love intra-day volatility need apply to have fun in this market:

If you don’t believe me, here are some charts to ponder over which show that we have rivaled both Flash Crash and Black Swan times before.  Feast your eyes on the High Jump for Starters:

Now let’s look at the Gloom and Doom Scenario, the “A” Accumulation Leadership.  What Leadership you ask?

I hear a lot of wishful thinking about “V” Bottoms…I say past history shows that is wishful thinking when there is no Leadership.  You judge for yourself:

Here is a new twist on the same theme…compare the %A Accumulation minus the %E Distribution…My friend Jerry Samet pays a lot of attention to this one:

So let’s look at where all the Major Market Indicies stand.  As of yesteday’s close they were all hovering around 0.3 %B, far too weak.  You and I can dabble around if we choose, but until we see the Bull Elephant Institutions Stomping around to the Upside (or for that matter the Downside), all the rest is nothing but biding time for some big news to swing this market one way or another.  You learnt it here first…you need 3 Buckets up in one day to even start to get excited.  Alternatively watch for 4 Buckets down in one day for the Downside as shown on 07/27/11, which started to kill this market:

I’m sure you know that Grandma’s Pies are a trifle moldy, and I am suggesting we need a couple of alternatives to the upside before we even think we have a Rally in the making.  We need one or two small steps for Grandma before we can see one giant leap for the Market.  Net-net we need 50:50 for starters:

Another way to measure some relief is to see positive Scores in the Bucket Brigade domain, as it has been negative for three cycles in a row as shown by this next chart and it is time to see some Green appear on the chart soon, which will at least move the buckets north of 0.5%!

So there you have it…not a very rosie picture, but you would have it as I see it rather than sugar coated.

Have a Happy!  Ian.

 

 

This entry was posted on Wednesday, August 17th, 2011 at 3:36 pm and is filed under HGS Principles, Market Analysis. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.