Ian Woodward's Investing Blog

Follow up Question on Market Analysis


The S&P 1500 Point Score was -7 today, a potential sell signal. At the same time the Major Markets %B x %B Bandwidth chart remain all green.  One reads sell and the other says hang in there.  If I were to make a sell decision, which chart should I give more weight to?


I’m sure Stephen won’t mind my posting my response of yesterday to the Blog, as it is of general help to all during these tricky times:


You now know me well enough that I can pull your leg…if I knew the answer to that question, I would not only walk on water, but I would not be asking you for your third million!  Now not to duck the question, it is not an either or at this stage because everyone knows as a result of today’s action, we are sitting on the hairy edge of CUSTER’s LAST STAND! Asia is pathetic as I write, and the FED seemingly disappointed that there is no QE 3 in sight until they play musical chairs early next year, so the buzz goes based on the headlines today. Where’s the Beef to take it upwards other than the big boys trying to eke out this affair for their Bonuses with the usual Santa Claus “Go get em tiger hue and cry!”

No one signal is going to call tomorrow ahead of time, but my quick blog note this afternoon should also have given you a Major Winky Winky. I don’t write one picture blog notes very often, especially when Ron and I are in crunch time on the Newsletter.

When in doubt look at the charts is the answer, and let the Market and your Stomach tell you what to do – the last three days have been a drip-drip effect downwards – that is why there are the two signals you mention not being clear cut. I drummed home the value of the wc chart at the Seminar and today it has turned red on most of it, including the Bongo Weekly and the Force 13-ema. But all of that is more mumbo jumbo (good stuff) to help you make the call. See what the futures bring tomorrow along with Ron’s one note and be ready.

Now, why did I put that chart up today? – to make you think of what it will take to get back to Tipperary! I do not spoon feed you into decisions.  But I will take you to the water trough to drink, and here is that UPDATED picture.

You also know that we only need another Picture of Merkel and Sarkozy shaking hands and the Market can trot back up in a wink.  That one picture has kept the hopes of a Santa Claus Rally alive!!!  However, it is getting a trifle stale.

 It seems that everyone including our gang of twelve know how to kick the can down the road!  So far, we have a reprieve for today with an oversold situation, but at least you are all upto date.
Best Regards, Ian.

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Disclaimer: Commentaries on this Blog are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell the market and/or specific securites. The consumer of the information is responsible for their own investment decisions.