Ian Woodward's Investing Blog

Stock Market: The Syrian Affair Killed the Rally

This Market is totally News Driven, and the uncertain outcome of the Syrian Affair has killed the Bull Rally Attempt:

Magic Picture

Why Black Magic?  It has me in its spell… and down and down I go, hating the spin that we’re in! The Market Indexes say it all:

Magic Indexes

Once more the Russell 2000 is about to give up the ghost, and my good friend from Thailand is watching intently with me to see if  %B x BW will break 0.000 one more time before the Market Bottoms and takes off again!

Magic RUT

Grandma’s Pies have the Bears fully in control, but as you will see later the last gasp is that the Canaries are still holding strong:

Magic Pies

Leadership is dwindling by the day, but don’t expect a bottom until the ratio of D+E swamps A+B by about 3:1

Magic abcde

…And here is that twin picture which shows we are currently at about 2.5:1 (0.42) in favor of the D+E’s over A+B:

Magic abcde2

To cap it all the “A’s” are slip sliding away as the “E’s” are gaining in numbers:

Magic a-e

Bottom Fishers beware…don’t get tempted when the odds are against you at this stage;  there is no oomph from the Bulls yet:

Magic Pat

We have just crossed the -4% down from the High Target for Market Indexes except the NASDAQ and NDX.  As I am sure you well know by now the next down turn Target is -8% and then we either recover or the floodgates open to the downside.

Magic Indexes2

By now the casual followers are saying “Come on Ian, where is the clue of what will happen next week?”  The oldies know me better.  I would rather have the Market tell me, but I will give you the One Clue of what to look for at this stage of events…the Canaries:

Magic Canaries

Here then is my Birthday Gift to you as I chalk up another year this Friday:

Magic Conclusions

Best Regards to all of you and yours, my supporters from around the world.

Ian.

4 Responses to “Stock Market: The Syrian Affair Killed the Rally”

  1. Scott Mamolo Says:

    As you like to say, good stuff! Stormy weather upon us, but we have a great guide with your insights, teaching and HGSI.

    Happy Birthday Ian — Here’s to your health and sharp mind.

    Scott

  2. Theresa Hui Says:

    Happy Birthday to the great Master, who labored hard on the Labor Day holiday weekend to keep his followers out of trouble!

    May you enjoy many more years of good health & good fortune, surrounded by all your loved ones!

    Best regards,
    Theresa

  3. mike Says:

    Hi Ian

    Happy birthday and Happy Labor Day!! I was wondering if you can provide a quick reminder of the significance of the A+B vs D+E stocks. I did a search of the blog entries on this site but could not come up with anything other than A+B represent stocks under accumulation and D+E are those under distribution. If you could mention what A, B, D, and E represent that would be much appreciated, thx Mike.

  4. ian Says:

    Many thanks to all of you for your good wishes.

    Mike…to your specific question about ABCDE…The great Guru on High Growth Stock Investing William O’Neil came up with the idea of categorizing stocks into five groups of Accumulation to Distribution and ranking the database. The HGSI Software ranks stocks with Price Above $5 and Avg. Daily Volume >100,000 shares from 100% to -100%, and so the categories are A = +60% to +100%; B = +20% to +59%; C = -20% to +19% (neutral); D = -21% to -60% and E = -61% to -100%.

    As you see from the charts I use to depict the degree of accumulation vs. distribution “A-E” and “A+B vs. D+E” are the most enlightening to watch for overall strength and weakness of the entire database of about 6820 stocks using the criteria above of $5 and 100,000 shares ADV. The ebb and flow of the Green lines (A+B) vs. the Red lines (D+E) gives a good history of when we may be at a top or bottom. Another 400 stocks added to the D+E stocks should suggest we are oversold and should look forward to a bounce!

    Ian.

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Disclaimer: Commentaries on this Blog are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell the market and/or specific securites. The consumer of the information is responsible for their own investment decisions.