Ian Woodward's Investing Blog

Stock Market: See-Saw and a Climax Run Market

I am back from an exhilarating and exhausting three day seminar at Sunny Palos Verdes, and Ron and I thank all of you our supporters for a rollicking good time.  The Newbies now know how to read my blog and the winky-winkies I give from time to time.  The first Picture chart usually spills the beans of what I think:

See-saw Picture

Unlike last Month where the Stock Market reaction to the mediocre Jobs Report was surprisingly good, this month’s report due on Friday should give us a better indication of the health of the economy here in the USA.

See-saw Indexes

Here is the performance of the Canaries which have essentially rolled over from their highs, but are still hanging in there:

See-saw Canaries

The Russell 2000 (RUT) suffered about a 5% loss from its high, but true to form turned up once again.  Before it breaks that trend-line hard is when we should all run for the hills and that should be when 1000 is broken to the downside:

See-saw RUT

We are now at that Critical Juncture I warned about of at least a 12% Correction since the Acc:Dist ratio is below 1.0 (Stalemate) and now we wait to see if there is a gigantic recovery in the Internals of the Market or it gently fades away:

See-saw abcde

Grandma’s Pies says it all…a complete turn around of 6 Buckets up in a matter of four days.  Now What?

See-saw Pies

The Path of Least Resistance is up, so play it that way until you get another Knee-jerk down.  Counting today, we are now into Day 4 of Twelve Drummers Drumming, so keep a beady eye on that count:

See-saw Pat

Here is nice new chart to digest, which shows the critical signals we have had in the past few weeks that tells the story:

See-saw Code Blue

Well, that’s it for today.  Keep your powder dry and your nest egg whole is job 1!  Write a comment to give me feedback.

Best Regards,

Ian

2 Responses to “Stock Market: See-Saw and a Climax Run Market”

  1. John Goble Says:

    Ian thanks to you and Ron and the rest of the crew for a very good seminar and I plan on the oct. one

  2. Scott Says:

    Ian: What a fantastic seminar — highly recommended. The collective wisdom, practical information and provided materials were excellent, as were the presentations from all. I very much appreciate this particular blog post as it directly reinforces what we learned. I am also thinking of high jump at this critical juncture.

    Next week also marks the beginning of another earnings season with AA reporting on 4/8/2014 and a time to see whether P/E expansion continues to carry this market higher (need to go back to the 90s last time that happened). I pay particular attention to stocks’ announcing earnings over the next 3 weeks, as we will soon see an earnings release deluge. The magnitude of a potential move can be forecast from options (straddle or implied from forward volatilities — AA is about 5% right now for example), and HGSI may give us a lens into the potential direction — smart money accumulation or distribution. You taught us all to latch onto a good idea and milk it. Listening to a Master.

    Cheers!

    Scott

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Disclaimer: Commentaries on this Blog are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell the market and/or specific securites. The consumer of the information is responsible for their own investment decisions.