Ian Woodward's Investing Blog

The week of March 15th is usually unstable and this was no exception.  “You too Brutus!”  The VIX shot up to over 18 on the 14th and then fell sharply back down to the 14 level before bouncing back up to around 15ish.

The Market Indexes are bouncing around due to the uncertainty that lies ahead on the Ukraine Affair:

The Small Caps keep barreling along as evidenced by the RUT which is in a solid uptrend as shown below:

The Canaries are dithering around and have lost their chirp with a minor roll over to the downside:

The S&P 1500 is essentially at Stalemate on Grandma’s Pies, and we may be headed down further:

…Our favorite chart shows the “Wibbly-Wobbly” state of affairs this past week traders have had to put up with:

The Internals of Accumulation vs. Distribution is virtually at Stalemate once again, and cliff-hanging:

Three Cheers for Chris White, CEO at EdgeRater, who has automated a High Jump Template on the NASDAQ:

We have introduced a New Impulse Indicator to compliment the Bingo…Its called Bango, overbought Market:

…And here are the recent results for Bango, starting with a Bingo at the bottom:

Best Regards, and see you at the Seminar next weekend!

Ian

Just when the Stock Market was reaching New Highs and the Highest Jump Target of 4350 on the NASDAQ was essentially met, the Ukraine Affair got the Market Jittery these last two days and we must now take a deep breath and see which way the wind is blowing from here.  The VIX has jumped up 2.33 points as I write this at 12.00 noon Pacific Coast Time.

The next chart shows the usual picture we like to follow of the various Market Indexes.  After that major hit downwards on January 24, when the S&P 1500 had all of 45% of its stocks below the Lower Bollinger Band, we bounced back with a V-Bottom this past five weeks only to be greeted with turbulence from the Ukraine/Russia Kerfuffle.

Now for the fun stuff!  It did it again…the trusty old High Jump Tool came through for us with flying colors and we essentially reached the Target of 4350 at 4343 for a High.  You will note that it has struggled to get past 14.74% this last 3 months which showed the market was running out of steam and now we need the market to tell us whether it is just pausing to refresh or is headed down.

…And here for good measure is a Weekly picture which shows how steep the climb has been recently:

Despite the hiccup, the RUT is still sitting pretty and was back into new high territory a couple of days ago:

…And to finish this off, the VIX climbed ~ 2 points today and should be viewed as a shot across the bow:

Less than a month to go for the HGSI March Seminar from the 29th to the 31st, so get cracking and sign up and I look forward to seeing you all with bright shiny faces in Sunny Palos Verdes.

Best Regards,

Ian.

Those of you who follow my blog faithfully will recall on the December 26th, 2013 Blog I showed you the rationale for the “High, Higher and Highest” Targets using my High Jump Process.  We had just achieved the Higher Jump Target on Christmas Eve of 4155, and then the Market corrected sharply.

We were on the brink of a more serious correction ten days ago, when the “Janet Yellen Halo Effect” took place with the NASDAQ rising ten days in a row!  So the Market is rising into New High Territory, and I felt it would be wise to dust off those old targets for your perusal.

The Market Indexes are down a little bit today as I write this blog but you can see at a glance that the snapshot shows we are now back to “Double Top” territory with the potential for going higher:

Likewise, the Acc/Dist Ratio has snapped back from being oversold to a respectable ~2:1 Ratio, so things are looking up for the Bulls once again:

With that preamble in setting the stage for an upside move it pays to look at our favorite chart to get one more confirmation before we look at the High Jump Targets for the NASDAQ.  It is the current picture of the S&P 1500 with its buckets compared to the Major Market Indexes with their %B, and %B 1-Day Change:

Now let’s get to the meat of this Blog relating to the Next High Jump Target.  For your convenience the next two slides are plucked from the December 26th Blog which you should go back and review by selecting that timeframe from past blogs on the right hand side of the first page.

Those two charts served us well over the Santa Claus Rally period and we achieved the “Higher” Target then.  The temptation is to apply the same technique to NOW, but my advice is not to do that, as one would then be compounding the “Greed Factor”.  Far better to stick with the old Targets from back then and set one’s sights on the Highest Jump Target of 4350 from that previous exercise.  If and when we pass that Target we can set new Stakes in the Ground, and measuring rods.  So rolling forward two months from then we get:

Yesterday along the way I captured this screen shot above when the NASDAQ was at 4274, and I direct your attention to the flatness of the High Jump since the December 24th Timeframe where it had not surpassed the 14.74% mark on the High Jump.  Going forward we need to see that broken to the upside and aiming for 16.28%.  That would be a clue that we are approaching 4350.  The second thing if we are lucky is that this next move is a climax run blow off and that we see an “Eureka” appear which would be a sign of a late stage exuberance for a climax run!  At that point we are well into “Greed” and so watch out below.

On this chart the Clue is the Weekly High Jump, which needs to spurt up to “72” before we get too excited, and if we are lucky that all of this should happen, then mark my words we will not only have met the 4350 Target but also be ready for a pratfall, which we have fortunately not had as of yet!

I am not a Soothsayer, but I have faith in the High Jump Tool which has served us well over these past 20 Years, and we shall see if it proves itself one more time.  Can the NASDAQ go higher than 4350?…yes, of course.  But let’s get there first is my point, if we are to go higher from here.  If not then you certainly know what to look for on the downside with -4% from the high and then -8% as the measuring rods!

Best Regards,

Ian.

Here is Part 2 of the Blog Note on the Jobs Report with a tip of the hat to John Bollinger, aka jb:

The Bulls earned a reprieve with a strong rebound and follow through to the previous day:

The Russell 2000 (RUT) also bounced back, but is not out of the woods as yet:

Now for my fun…who would have “thunk it”…Wonders never cease to amaze on the reaction to the Jobs Report:

The Acc:Dist ratio is still oversold at 0.65, and we need another 500 stocks in A+B to even get to Stalemate:

The Bulls have salvaged the Rally in the last two days, but now comes the real test to see if they can move higher:

Written while enjoying the Golf at Pebble Beach and the Ski-Jumping at the Olympics.  Give me your feedback!

Ian

Those who know me well understand the respect I have for my good friend and neighbor John Bollinger for what I have gleaned from his Bollinger Bands over the years, and the fun I have had in using Bucketology, Grandma’s Pies and Kahunas Up and Down to keep you and me on the right side of the Market.

The last time I tipped my hat to him was on October 29, 2011 in these blog notes, so it’s time to do it again:

The Market Indexes all had a respectable 1% Bounce today.  The Jobs Report tomorrow will determine if the Bounce continues or we fall back into the abyss:

This next chart of accumulation vs. distribution shows that the Market is well oversold and gives us a measure of how much further it should go before there is a significant Rally:

Here is the picture since we had that 45% of the S&P 1500 below the Lower BB on 2/3/2014:

I know this next chart is a trifle busy, especially for newbies, but it sums up the current situation and tells you precisely what are the alternatives for the Bulls and the Bears going forward.  Net-net, the Jobs Report tomorrow had better be excellent to drive Kahunas up on all the Indexes as shown to get the Bulls to Rally and out of the control of the Bears:

Good luck and good hunting,

Ian.