Ian Woodward's Investing Blog

Fools Rush in Where Angels Fear to Tread

At times like these, a couple of pictures are worth a thousand words: 

Say Nothing 

I note that some people may have ants in their pants. Just look once more at the Title of the Note I put up two days ago…The Early Bird Catches the Worm, but Watch Out for the Hawk Above.  If you are too hurried and do not have time to read the whole article again, then focus on these two points: 

  1. V bottoms are very rare patterns and one is far more likely to get caught in a retest of the lows. 
  2. Watch the internals of the New Highs and New Lows on strong up days.  Yesterday was putrid, and most would call it a Dead Cat Bounce.  It also happened to come off support at the 200-dma on the NASDAQ, which was a most likely call for most technicians. 

Now think of what has happened since then and the reinforcement of where the psychology stands which has not changed at all in my note of August 4…The Party’s Over and the Jig is Up! 

  1. The psychology – a 10% correction for a decent clean out 
  2. The Volatility has increased…200 DOW Points swings every day are commonplace lately 
  3. The Loans fiasco has now spilled overseas to Europe causing a miserable day here today 
  4. The Earnings are long since forgotten other than to prop up a few stellar reporting stocks Then ask yourself if you should be fiddling while Rome is burning; only Moment Traders are having fun and they must be so nimble that they are literally down to moments, and not within the day trade decisions. 

The Net-net message today is the less said by me, the better.  You had the warning signs from me well before this and I hope you heeded the messages.  Keep Your Powder Dry.  Best Regards, Ian.

2 Responses to “Fools Rush in Where Angels Fear to Tread”

  1. Paul R Says:

    Ian,

    Very lackluster “rally” today 081307, is that good or bad considering last week?

  2. ian Says:

    Paul: You got that right…dead cat bounce and today would be a distribution day with over 2.16 Billion shares traded, so it does not look too good for tomorrow and the odds favor a trot down to retest the lows. As we well know, this is an extremely volatile market, so be careful either way. Good luck. Ian.

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