Ian Woodward's Investing Blog

The Stock Market is Still Celebrating the Moon Landing

moon

At long last we have a decision on which way this market will move given today’s
substantial rally, which pushed through the bugaboo level of 956 and plagued
this Market for the past two months plus.  We had a 9% correction from the top,
and now we are headed for the next target of 1000. 

The Golden Cross which I discussed in the previous blog has done its duty and
produced the best one month gain in 20 previous such occasions with a Gain
of 9.07% to close today at 976.29.  Please note that from History the next month is flat, so don’t be too excited if it performs according to the past.  It seldom happens, but is always good enough of a target for gov’t work.

gc

At long last the Saw Tooth Game Plan is again looking healthy, and as you can see
we are again on the high road with an even bigger cushion than before of being
able to tolerate a 10% correction before we again hit the magic number of 880 to
the downside.

saw

The Monthly Coppock is still up, but the Weekly has corrected over the past six weeks and is now finding a bottom and hopefully will turn up, but not there yet:

coppock

I gave you two sets of Targets on the last blog for the Bulls and Bears respectively, and we will look at the status with happy and sad faces.  The three most important
items are:

1.  The Acc/Dist Vol. Ratio was weak and should return to 1.2 – Currently @ 1.0
2.  The 40-period BB was flat and needs to turn up before Long Term Buy and Hold Investors should at least feel the Market has turned the corner for them.
3.  The High Jump for the 200-dma to the Index is peaking – Currently 12.48%

Here in quick order are the three charts that present the situation:

acc

mark

high

The Update on the Ten Upside and Downside Targets for the Bulls & Bears follows:

upside

downside

As my boss once said to me “Stick with me and you will be wearing Diamonds for
Suits…Nothing Else!”:  Still waiting for the Diamonds.   This market is event driven, and Earnings are currently at the forefront.  Three things still loom:  The deficit, the bail-outs, and health care are other big items.   Markets can turn on a dime.  Take it a day at a time.

Best Regards, Ian.

2 Responses to “The Stock Market is Still Celebrating the Moon Landing”

  1. Akiva Dar Says:

    Hi Ian

    Thank you again for your very helpful blog.

    Question:

    Using HGSI warehouse and charts:

    1) What market and warehouse (or view) you use for the NYSE Acc/Dis Vol ratio that is now at 1.00 ?

    2) I assume for the 40 period BB you use the S&P 500 (from “Major Market Indices”) with the “W” chart.

    3) For the High jump I assume you use the same S&P 500 as above. I assume you use chart 7a ( In which I am getting 12.54% which may be a small difference..)

    Thank you for your clarifications.

    Akiva

  2. ian Says:

    Hi Akiva: Your note got buried in the woodwork…did not see it until I checked now.

    1) You can’t get the NYSE Acc/Dis Vol ratio in HGSI…I generate that in a spreadsheet and then make a chart of the results.

    2) Your assumption is correct

    3) Your assumption is correct…it varies from day to day and may not have been measured on the same day; however, as you say small difference. Besides, I also do the same chart in a spreadsheet and that is what you see on the blog. It allows me to do “What If” Goal Seek analysis to project possible future results as shown in the small table. They are good enough to give one a feel ahead of time.

    Ian.

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Disclaimer: Commentaries on this Blog are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell the market and/or specific securites. The consumer of the information is responsible for their own investment decisions.