Ian Woodward's Investing Blog

Stock Market: Leap Year Voodoo

The saying goes, Beware the Ides of March which is all of 15 Days away.  It looks as if the shot across the bow today suggests that the Leap Year may have beaten it to the caution:

Anyone watching today’s action in the Stock Market couldn’t help but see that the Small Cap Russell 2000 Market Index had a bad day with regard to our terminology…Close to a -5 Bucket Down Day!  The other Indexes have turned “Yellow” and could follow with another bad day in succession:

You don’t need to know the numbers…those three red blobs which I have ringed says it all.  The RUT had 4.8 Buckets DOWN today, and as you can see from the sea of green we have had since late December, we have had a first MAJOR shot across the bow. Read carefully my last Blog Note to understand the significance of 5 Buckets down.

AAPL shot up first thing but towards the close was under pressure giving most of the gains back…however, it held fast and came roaring back in the last half hour after a small shake out.  Uncle Ben was not  encouraging today and the Market was not too pleased with his outlook, hence the fall in the Small Caps which have yin-yanged now for all of 18 days.

I felt I should give you that quick review to be on your toes for tomorrow to see if the other Market Indexes follow suit or that it was just a flash in the pan letting off some steam.  Of course it is no news to you that the Market is long in the tooth so a little bit of a pullback would be healthy.  By the way the TVIX and VIX remained very calm, so that is still a good sign for the Bulls, and until you see the kind of jump I explained in my last Blog, just watch those two to stay alert for which way the wind is blowing.

For those planning on coming to the seminar in three weeks time, you have until March 9th to sign up for the discount rate we have secured for you at the Courtyard Marriott…don’t dilly-dally on the way.  You snooze, you lose.

Best Regards, Ian.

 

2 Responses to “Stock Market: Leap Year Voodoo”

  1. Paul R Says:

    Thanks for the update Ian.

    How common is it for the VIX and TVIX to remain calm on a day like today?

    Paul R

  2. ian Says:

    That’s a good observation, Paul. As you know I watch those two like a hawk during the day, and I knew despite the generally down day, especially in the last hour that we should have seen more gusto in the VIX and TVIX. It seems they have found a floor, but are waiting for some serious bad news to really wack the Markets…which has not appeared as yet.

    More importantly, although today was a day when the small caps got whacked, I feel the Market is still taking its cue from the Nasdaq 100 and especially AAPL. It took a small hit that essentially wiped the gains out for the day, but as I said, it bounced right back and it was more a shake out than a scare you out. AAPL is NOW definitely the one to watch before we see any real movement in the TVIX, and it must show a lot more gusto than the VIX to the point of being above it in price for me to be convinced that the big drop is underway…if at all.

    We shall see how this evolves. Best Regards, Ian.

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