Ian Woodward's Investing Blog

Archive for September, 2013

Stock Market: Miracles Happened Overnight!

Wednesday, September 11th, 2013

Before I address the Market, let me pause to Remember this fateful day which is all on our minds:

Miracles Picture

Out of the Blue with all the Gloom and Doom around us with regard to the Syrian Affair, we got a Miracle:

Miracles Market

…And here to prove it the Markets were all up on Monday and Tuesday, and holding today:

Miracles Market2

The RUT is flying high again at Mid day on Wednesday morning as I write this blog note:

Miracles RUT

It doesn’t take two seconds to see the strength come back into the Market in the last couple of days:

Miracles Market3

Even the Accumulation vs. Distribution Ratio is almost back to Stalemate:

Miracles abcde

With the Ratio this low at 0.87 and the NASDAQ into New High Territory, it suggests we have a lot higher to go.  We’ll see:

Miracles Ratio

Even %A-%E is showing signs of life again:

Miracles a-e

Grandma’s Pies show the Bulls are back in control:

Miracles Pie

…And last but not least, look at the Bucket Skips the last two days, showing the Bulls are back in control:

Miracles Pat

Many thanks to all of you who wrote to wish me for my Birthday last week.

Best Regards,


Q&A: Accumulation vs. Distribution

Monday, September 2nd, 2013

I felt this question in the Comments Section was worthy of highlighting with a Q&A Comment on a follow up Blog Note:

  • mike Says: September 2nd, 2013 at 7:19 am   editHi IanHappy birthday and Happy Labor Day!!  I was wondering if you can provide a quick reminder of the significance of the A+B vs. D+E stocks.  I did a search of the blog entries on this site but could not come up with anything other than A+B represent stocks under accumulation and D+E are those under distribution.  If you could mention what A, B, D, and E represent that would be much appreciated, thx Mike.
  • ian Says: September 2nd, 2013 at 11:24 am   editMany thanks to all of you for your good wishes.Mike…to your specific question about ABCDE…The great Guru on High Growth Stock Investing William O’Neil came up with the idea of categorizing stocks and ranking the database into five groups of Accumulation to Distribution.  The HGSI Software ranks stocks with Price Above $5 and Avg. Daily Volume >100,000 shares from 100% to -100%, and so the categories are A = +60% to +100%; B = +20% to +59%; C = -20% to +19% (neutral); D = -21% to -60% and E = -61% to -100%.As you see from the charts I use to depict the degree of accumulation vs. distribution “A-E” and “A+B vs. D+E” are the most enlightening to watch for overall strength and weakness of the entire database of about 6820 stocks using the criteria above of $5 and 100,000 shares ADV. The ebb and flow of the Green lines (A+B) vs. the Red lines (D+E) gives a good history of when we may be at a top or bottom. If the Market continues on down from here, another 400 stocks added to the D+E stocks of 3381 would suggest we are oversold and should look forward to a bounce!
  • I find the value is in the consistency of where the tops and bottoms appear over the years:
  •  Magic abcde

Best Regards, Ian.

Stock Market: The Syrian Affair Killed the Rally

Sunday, September 1st, 2013

This Market is totally News Driven, and the uncertain outcome of the Syrian Affair has killed the Bull Rally Attempt:

Magic Picture

Why Black Magic?  It has me in its spell… and down and down I go, hating the spin that we’re in! The Market Indexes say it all:

Magic Indexes

Once more the Russell 2000 is about to give up the ghost, and my good friend from Thailand is watching intently with me to see if  %B x BW will break 0.000 one more time before the Market Bottoms and takes off again!

Magic RUT

Grandma’s Pies have the Bears fully in control, but as you will see later the last gasp is that the Canaries are still holding strong:

Magic Pies

Leadership is dwindling by the day, but don’t expect a bottom until the ratio of D+E swamps A+B by about 3:1

Magic abcde

…And here is that twin picture which shows we are currently at about 2.5:1 (0.42) in favor of the D+E’s over A+B:

Magic abcde2

To cap it all the “A’s” are slip sliding away as the “E’s” are gaining in numbers:

Magic a-e

Bottom Fishers beware…don’t get tempted when the odds are against you at this stage;  there is no oomph from the Bulls yet:

Magic Pat

We have just crossed the -4% down from the High Target for Market Indexes except the NASDAQ and NDX.  As I am sure you well know by now the next down turn Target is -8% and then we either recover or the floodgates open to the downside.

Magic Indexes2

By now the casual followers are saying “Come on Ian, where is the clue of what will happen next week?”  The oldies know me better.  I would rather have the Market tell me, but I will give you the One Clue of what to look for at this stage of events…the Canaries:

Magic Canaries

Here then is my Birthday Gift to you as I chalk up another year this Friday:

Magic Conclusions

Best Regards to all of you and yours, my supporters from around the world.


Copyright © 2007-2010 Ian Woodward
Disclaimer: Commentaries on this Blog are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell the market and/or specific securites. The consumer of the information is responsible for their own investment decisions.