Ian Woodward's Investing Blog

I can tell that my good friend Kevin sitting in Qatar is biting his finger nails along with his friends wondering what the latest pulse of the Market is?  I am feverishly working on the Monthly Newsletter but felt I would give you the Overview to ponder over until this next few days are behind us.  The Bottom Line is “This Market has Nasal Catarrh!”

Overview: 

This Month’s Picture not only implies that we are marking time and in Stalemate, with the Market Indexes moving sideways on the Middle Road Scenario, but also the only ones making money are the High Frequency Traders (HFTs).  The rotten Jobs Report only exacerbated the tepid Yo-Yo Rally we have had this past month and two of the Market Indexes, the NYA and RUT are flirting with Death Crosses, while five of the six are sitting around the 50-dma.  Add to this the latest scandals with the Libor mumbo jumbo, it is no wonder that the ordinary investor has toddled off into the sunset to enjoy Graduations, Weddings and Vacations.  Hence the Low Volume has played right into the hands of the HFTs and they are having major fun at our expense.

Besides discussing the High and Low Road Scenarios, the theme for this month is to take stock of the recent statistics for Gains and Losses in Rallies and Corrections since March of 2009 and to confirm Rules of Thumb.  Ron continues to squeeze the most out of the HGS Investor Software by evaluating Major Industry Groups that are out-performing the Major Market Indexes and then shows how to ferret down into the Leading Stocks in those Leading Groups.

The Round Table discussion is on Monday, 16^thJuly at 4.30pm EST.   If you like what you see on this Blog, sign up for the Newsletter now when you will also have access to the Round table for Free.

http://www.highgrowthstock.com/Newsletter/newsletter.htm

We look forward to seeing our faithful supporters on October 27 to 29 at the Palos Verdes Library and as always we will have fresh material to cover as we again raise the bar.

Best Regards,

Ian

Stocks plunged on Wall Street Friday after the U.S. Gov’t reported that only 80,000 jobs were created in June, the third straight month of weak hiring.  In my Blog Note of June 10th I warned that the market swooned on the day of the Jobs Report and to watch out for this one which went true to form with yet another see-saw:

We had four strong up days to blunt the Low Road Scenario of a possible Death Cross, but then ran into a buzz saw with the rotten jobs report, having hit the Overhead Resistance I had cautioned you all about:

As a consequence, the Small Cap Russell 2000 (RUT) stocks are leading the way and the Large Caps got whacked as shown by the Accumulation/Distribution Charts my good friend Dr. Robert Minkowsky shared with me:

Here are the ups and downs we have tolerated these last three and a half months for the S&P 1500, and as usual a worthwhile nugget to remember is that when the Market Corrects more than 10% you can certainly expect three Fakeys before the Market will attemp a decent Bounce Play, if not a full new Rally:

We are now out of an Overbought situation and lost a bucket to the downside in one day on Friday, which frankly is far less damage done than I would have expected given the big drop in all the Indexes:

As I reminded you back on June 10th that you should expect another knee jerk for the July Jobs Report and true to form we had another rotten day.  I have plucked that chart along with my new comments in red on the chart below followed by the results since then on the following chart:

As I mentioned we did not have as severe a move down and the Bears have had the wind taken out of their sails.  Compare the action in Kahunas on the left hand side of the next chart on previous Jobs Reports to see why I say that:

So What?  At least the internals are not anywhere near as bad as previous Jobs Reports and the Bulls still have control to arrest the rotten day on Friday and attempt to push up through all that overhead supply I showed you earlier.  It is such a tricky market that Day Traders can have a feast if they are nimble.

Best Regards,

Ian.

After the major surprise on Friday when we had an enormous 3% Day on most Market Indexes, we had a Turn-Up for the Books the likes of which is seldom seen:

Here is what happened to the Market Indexes and the Strong Bounce Play resulted.  Death Cross is on the Back Burner:

Here is a brand new view that I am indebted to my good friend Dr. Robert Minkowsky for sending me.  It says it all…The Russell 2000 (RUT) is the place to be!

Make no mistake about it, the Momentum on last Friday was humongous with 3.6 Buckets up on the S&P 1500:

The 2x and 3x ETFs show that the Bears lost control on Friday and we are now firmly into Bull Control Territory:

Also, Accumulation/Distribution Targets I gave you a week ago are Back into a Healthy Bull Picture:

I can tell that many are looking forward to the 4th. of July Celebrations on Wednesday…Have fun.

Best Regards,

Ian.

Lesson learned:  It’s called “Buy the Rumor, Sell the News!”  Now the $64 Question is “Black Cross or Up, Up and Away?”  Well, I have to get my jollies sometimes, so as the highgrowthstock bb is mighty quiet here you go:

Although the “Market has Spoken” there is no Panic Selling since the volume is mediocre.  For what it is worth, I say again to Type 3 & 4 Long Term Investors “Keep your Powder Dry!”  Intra-Day Type 1’s play to your Heart’s content, since you are Nimble!  I leave you with my feelings:

Thanks to those who took the time to comment on my last note.  Best Regards,

Ian

The hour is late, but for my International supporters especially in the Far East they would like to get a feel for what is occuring on this side of the pond.  Bottom line is we are in Stalemate and bouncing up and down:

Let’s step back and put all that I do together using Impulse Indicators with both a Weekly and Daily Chart for the last few years.  I have kept you on the right side of the Market with Eurekas, Phoenix and Kahunas Up and Down:

%B has flip-flopped either side of the 0.5 line these last 5 days, so Bulls and Bears are in a tug-o-war:

More of the same showing the Stalemate:

Although there was a three Bucket down followed by a two bucket down day two days later, we are  near Stalemate:

…And here is the same thing using Accumulation and Distribution:

Last but not least, we are “All Quiet on the Western Front” with the VIX:

Best Regards, and Long Term Investors should keep your powder dry until this yin-yang settles down.

Ian.