Ian Woodward's Investing Blog

Fly Me to the Moon or In your Foxholes?


A faithful supporter writes “Ron, I haven’t had a single message appear
since Mar 10.  Can this be with such a significant rally since then?”

Ron is basking in the sun in sunny Florida before he heads west to bask
in the sun in sunny Palos Verdes.  The forecast is for Sunny Weather and
75 degrees, but the nights get chilly, so bring a warm sweater.

The newsletter is out and several people are getting ready to descend on
us here, while we feverishly prepare the presentations for next weekend.
Thanks to your support we have a decent quorum, but still have a few vacant
seats if you  care to come at the last minute.

When the bulletin board goes this quiet or the once a month Saturday Meeting
attendance goes down, that is usually a good sign that the market has
bottomed and we are due for a decent rally.  However, we must remember
that the public at large has gone through Anxiety, Denial, Fear, Desperation,
Panic, Capitulation and are now on the borders of Despondency and
Depression.  So there is naturally a good deal of skepticism that this is
nothing more than an oversold bounce or a Bear Trap which is waiting to
spring loose shortly.

When things get this bad, the market can catch everyone asleep at the
switch and take off.  That is the Hope, but Relief can only come when a 12%
Rally turns into a 25% one and is followed quickly by a 40% one.  Until then
there is little Hope for Optimism turning to Excitement, Thrill and Euphoria.

At present, there are only two types of Investor who can make good money
…those that trade in moments both ways and those that trade intra-day and
are lucky if the market finishes on a high at the end of the day.  Swing Traders
usually get slaughtered and Buy and Hold types are safely tucked away in
their foxholes.  Again, we can tell since many of the faithful supporters who
have religiously attended the seminars are staying away waiting patiently for
the all clear sign.  However, this is precisely the time when they should be
spending their hard-earned money on learning how and when to pounce.

The message learned is that “Emotion Rules the Market”.  It is the cyclical
nature of Optimism to Greed to Fear and Hope.  It is the Psychology of the
Market which is Key.  Ron and I will teach you that the HGSI software is in
lock step with this message and that you will learn to make more money,
keep the money you earned and have fun.  We will look forward to seeing
you in less than a week.  Have a safe journey, and may all your “bets” be winners!

Late Breaking News – We have had a confirmed rally…how long it will last in
this skittish Market is another story for another day.

Best Regards, Ian

Copyright © 2007-2010 Ian Woodward
Disclaimer: Commentaries on this Blog are not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell the market and/or specific securites. The consumer of the information is responsible for their own investment decisions.